Since the beginning of this year, the price of soda ash has shown a clear downward trend. The SA2009 contract has fallen from around 1,600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to below 1,300 yuan/ton in the third quarter. Especially since the second quarter, the performance of downstream glass futures is quite different. The fundamental reason lies in the mismatch of supply and demand between the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain. Since 2017, in the context of increasing environmental protection efforts, the growth rate of the domestic glass industry's production capacity has shown a downward trend. In particular, the Shahe area of Hebei, which is a “glass town”, has reduced production at an unprecedented rate, and the number of glass production lines in production has almost been cut. At the same time, the soda ash industry is still in the expansion cycle. Relevant data show that the national soda ash production capacity in 2019 was 33.39 million tons, an increase of 8.44% year-on-year, and the growth rate hit a new high since 2011. In addition, in the second quarter of this year, Hebei began a new round of production restrictions. Shahe and surrounding areas shut down 7 glass production lines in a single quarter, which led to a sharp drop in demand for soda ash in the short term, while soda ash enterprises were relatively insufficient in reducing production during the same period. The mismatch of supply and demand under the large and small cycles has caused the soda ash industry to continue to decline.